Forecast conditions

You can generate a performance forecast for an active Guarantee, Dynamic Monetization, or Booking campaign. The forecast helps you assess the likelihood of completing your campaign and see which factors affect its delivery.

Forecasting principles

  • Forecasts are based on collected statistics. If a placement has too little traffic or the traffic is unstable, the forecast won't be generated or may be inaccurate. In the latter case, you'll see a warning about the forecast's inaccuracy.

  • Forecasts factor in almost all the basic parameters of a campaign and its banners. You can find a full list of supported and unsupported features in the Limits section below.

    Forecasts are unavailable for campaigns that use unsupported features.

  • Forecasts account for inventory availability. If a placement runs ads from other Guarantee or Booking campaigns, a separate forecast is made for each one, provided those campaigns don't use unsupported features. The result shows the volume of impressions lost to other campaigns or taken away from contending campaigns on the same inventory.

Limits

Not all campaign and placement parameters can be taken into account when forecasting: some of them aren't supported yet. Forecasts are unavailable for campaigns that use unsupported features.

Features

Factored in

Not factored in

Campaign and banner parameters

  • Campaign levels and banner priorities

  • Limits on the number of impressions at the campaign, flight, and banner level

  • Limits on the number of click-throughs

  • Impression count method

  • Impression running speed:

    • Spreading traffic evenly by day limit
    • Spreading traffic evenly throughout the entire period
    • Spreading traffic evenly by general limit (automatic prolongation)

  • Limits on the number of clicks

  • Sequential impressions

  • Session screenings

  • Industry

Campaign type
  • Promo

Placement settings

  • Limits on the number of impressions at the site, section, and placement level

  • Impression frequency

Targeting

  • By time

  • By frequency

  • By demographics

  • By geo

  • By logic statements

  • By device type

  • By positions

  • Keyword targeting

  • URL (prior to request parameters)

  • By IP address

  • By operating systems

  • By browsers

  • User characteristics (additional targets)

  • By audience (Crypta)

  • By audience (Yandex Audience)

  • By behavior

Forecast period

The maximum forecast horizon is 180 days from the current date. If a campaign's end date exceeds this period, the forecast covers only the next 180 days, assuming the rest of the impressions are spread evenly through the end of the campaign. For example, if there are 1,000,000 impressions left to fulfill and 10 months until the end of the campaign, the forecast will be made for 180 days and 600,000 impressions.

If the end date of the campaign is not specified, the number of impressions is forecast for the next 180 days.

Forecast accuracy

The forecast accuracy depends on:

  • The minimum number of impressions that the campaign receives daily. The more traffic a campaign has, the more accurate the forecast is.

  • The use of unsupported functionality in contending campaigns. In the future, Adfox will expand the list of parameters taken into account when making a forecast.

  • The volatility (variability) of traffic on placements. If traffic is stable, forecast accuracy increases.

Warning

Data on potential impressions is approximate and may differ from the number of actual impressions. The forecast is relevant only at the current time. If you changed the placement settings, the campaign parameters, or the parameters of contending campaigns, we recommend making a new forecast.

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